The Pugwash Secretariat. 30 October 2023:
Note on the present situation in Ukraine and in Israel and Gaza,
from Pugwash Secretary General Paolo Cotta Ramusino (unofficial translation).
In this dramatic period, severe conflicts are endangering global security. It is important to reduce heavily these conflicts and restore a path for peace and security. It will not be an easy task, but it is important that Pugwash make its contribution to the goal of peace in whatever way possible. In any case the most important decision to be made is an immediate ceasefire followed by suitable negotiations.
Let us discuss briefly the two most relevant and dangerous current conflicts: the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza and Israel. The number of people killed and wounded, both civilian and military, is growing daily, and the numbers mentioned below are just provisional data.
ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE
Ukraine saw a staggering number of lives lost–according to the UN, in the period 2014-2021 Ukraine suffered more than 14,000 fatalities. The war that started with the Russian invasion in February 2022 led to possibly 37,000 deaths among Ukrainian civilians and possibly 70,000 deaths among the Ukrainian forces. The Russian forces lost possibly 100,000 or more. And the war is ongoing. The Ukrainian population, according to some reports, has been reduced from around 46 million to maybe 36 million, attributed mainly to the number of people who have left the country. The economic damage caused by the war is in any case staggering.
Future prospects are not encoraging. Should the war continue at the present rate, more Ukrainains will be killed. And should the war be extended to a more direct confrontation between NATO/US and Russian forces, nuclear risks will increase dramatically. The possibility of either side achieving any short-term victory on the ground with conventional forces is far from realistic.
It is important that in the short term a ceasefire be achieved, followed by negotiations on the management of the territories that are now occupied by Russian forces. In the period 2014-15, the Minsk agreements were defined, proposing some mediation between Russia and Ukraine. We should possibly consider going back to the spirit of the Minsk agreements, with necessary adjustments.
Certainly any ceasefire should be linked to halting the supply of weapons to the antagonists. Furthermore, any weapons supplied to Ukraine by the US or NATO countries could result in prolonging the war and, as mentioned before, increasing nuclear risks.
It is also very important to restart the US-Russia arms control process that has been drastically set aside for several years. With the cancellation of the ABM and INF Agreements by the US, only the New Start agreement has survived, although Russia has suspended its implementation in terms of inspections and participation in the bilateral consultative commission. Now there are rumors about the possibility that Russia will abandon the CTBT, in part justified by the fact that neither the US nor China has ratified it. The international community should say very clearly that we do not want the dismantlement of all the gains that we had obtained in the arms control process.
ISRAEL & GAZA
On October 7, 2023 Hamas militants attacked a rave party organized about five kilometers from the Gaza Strip. At least 260 people were killed there, and altogether a total of about 1400 Israeli civilians were killed by the Hamas attacks that followed. About 200 Israelis were kidnapped by Hamas. On the other side, about 8000 Palestinian civilians, many of whom were children, have reportedly been killed in the ensuing Israeli attacks againts Gaza. The supply of of water, food, and gas to Gaza has been critical for a long time. Civilians were told to leave Northern Gaza territory and move south, without water, food and gasoline. And moving to the south did not necessarily save homes and people from Israeli attacks. The medical situation in Gaza is a disaster and hospitals cannot really work properly. To the number of people killed one must also add the high number of people wounded, both Palestinians and Israelis.
The war in and around Gaza could continue with the extensive involvement of northern Lebanon (where Hezbollah is located), and, in the future, could also possibly involve, indirectly or directly, other Middle Eastern countries, Iran for example.
The outrageous number of civilans killed, wounded and displaced makes the present war around Gaza one of the worst episodes of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. We must also not forget that the massacre of civilians is a criminal activity, no matter who is performing it, just as the use of chemical weapons (such as white phosphorus) is also a forbidden activity.
At the origin of these problems is the fact that Gaza had been transformed into an open-air prison, with Palestine being physically separated into two non-communicating parts. The Oslo agreement is 30 years old. But the two-state solution has not at all been properly implemented. The rigid separation between Gaza and the West Bank, and the Israeli settlements in the latter, are all elements that in fact violate the spirit of the Oslo agreement.
The invasion of Gaza by Israeli military could make things much worse. Destroying people’s homes and forcing more than one million people to leave their homes and their possessions, will be the source of further hostilities and revenge. And it will most likely block the possibility of saving the life of Israeli hostages.
Instead, what we need immediately is a total ceasefire and commitment to finding an effective two-state arrangement.
We should also acknowledge that without a ceasefire, there could be a further spread of hostilities possibly involving other countries in the Middle East, resulting in an even more dangerous situation.
THE SPREAD OF VIOLENCE AND WAR
We note a tendency towards the spread of violence and conflicts, an imitation factor that could lead to more dangers and fatalities. Problems could spread further, to the wider Middle East, to Taiwan, to the Koreas, etc. We must call on the international community at large to work strongly for the containment of hostilities and the promotion of peace. With the quantity of weapons of mass destruction present, we are running unprecedented global risks that should be avoided at all costs.
Source: https://pugwash.org/2023/10/30/note-on-the-present-situation-in-ukraine-and-in-israel-and-gaza/