Statement in support of the scientific study of the effects of nuclear war

Pugwash secretariat
October 29, 2024

The risk of nuclear weapons use is higher than at any time since the height of the Cold War. Serious regional conflicts have raised escalating nuclear rhetoric, at a time when nuclear arms control and responsible management of the nuclear order is being given diminished attention by the nuclear weapons states.

The Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs originates in the 1955 Russell-Einstein Manifesto with a call to scientists “to appraise the perils that have arisen as a result of the development of weapons of mass destruction.” At that time, in the wake of the Lucky Dragon incident, there was significant evidence of impact of nuclear explosions on human life; less was known about the wider climatic and environmental effects.

While research has since advanced, the last comprehensive United Nations study of the effects of nuclear war was published in 1988. In the subsequent decades, numerous technical papers have been published and need joint review. Furthermore, nuclear weapons developments, such as low-yield weapons and higher accuracy, have emerged and new regional scenarios have become more likely. More simulation tools with powerful computer models are also now available. Global policymaking will benefit from rigorous scientific study and up-to-date findings to better inform international diplomacy and the nuclear treaties framework.

Pugwash therefore welcomes and fully endorses the resolution presented to the United Nations General Assembly on 15 October 2024 for an independent Scientific Panel on the Effects of Nuclear War.

Producing detailed studies of the consequences of nuclear weapons use will counteract loose talk by political leaders and officials and provide concrete steps to lessen the likelihood of them being used in conflicts. As a community of scientists, Pugwash firmly believes in the necessity of scientific, evidence-based input to policymaking, as well as providing impartial information to the global community. We stand ready to participate in this important endeavour and support the Panel with our regional and scientific expertise.

Recalling again the Russell Einstein Manifesto, we highlight the question: “what steps can be taken to prevent a military contest of which the issue must be disastrous to all parties?” The creation of an independent panel under the auspices of the UN Secretary General will be an important step in this regard. Moreover, at such a dangerous time, it is very much in the interest of humanity as a whole to lessen the risks of the catastrophic consequences of using nuclear weapons.

Hussain Al-Shahristani, Pugwash President
Paolo Cotta-Ramusino, Pugwash Secretary General
Karen Hallberg, Pugwash Council chair & Secretary General elect

For more information: https://pugwash.org